Monday 3 March 2014

If It Looks Like a Bubble...

I just saw this. Pretty nifty, eh? Rising house prices in over half of the country, and up 1.1% per month in London. But let's all consider the closing sentence:

"But he said the rising pressure was not blocking new buyers from the property market because of higher loan-to-value (LTV) lending."

I'll tell you all something - he's talking shit. Ok we might be able to get a 95% LTV mortgage, but let's suppose we're trying to buy a 3-bed mid-terraced house in Cam, for £250k (which I've well established is what all the non-crappy places are advertised at at a minimum, and you can check out this lovely stats page for all the housing options. Top tip; you can't afford a detached house, so don't even look). So we just need a £12,500 for a deposit. Woo! Yay, tick we've got that. Let's go ask a bank if they'll lend us £237,500.
Well first we'll do a bit of averaging of earnings. According to the ONS, for our age bracket we should be both earning £412 per week*, and supposing that holds for 52 weeks of the year, we'll put that at annual salaries of £21,424 each (ignoring that women still typically earn less, but that's for a whole other blog).
Plug the numbers into, oh let's go with the Nationwide's mortgage calculator (because they're "On Your Side" after all), and they'd be willing to lend us a grand total of... £187,100!

Just a £50k deficit, which is not enough to be covered by the government's Help to Buy scheme. So how are Jo and Joe Average going to get their dream (and by dream I mean it's roughly in the city, has some walls and windows and no major structural defects) 3-bed house to start a family. Cause yeah, wait, that £187,100 you can borrow is dependent on you not having any other outgoings except student loans. Don't you dare think you could get a mortgage like that if you have children!


*taken from here which I realise is a year out of date, but who's honestly had a substantial pay rise since then.

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